A crucial number may lie at the heart of the escalating slap fight between Donald Trump and Jeb Bush. That number is 40: the percentage of Florida’s Hispanic vote that the Republican presidential nominee may need to win the state in the general election. Behind that calculus lie cold political numbers. At the presidential level, the Democrats have a blue state base of 247 electoral votes, according to political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. The Republicans have 206 red state votes.