Kyle Kondik, a House analyst for the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, says that if (and he stresses it's a big “if”) Republicans eventually suffer because of the shutdown, it will not be tea partyers who are hurt. “While the Republican brand is poor, the president isn't particularly popular — his approval is only in the low to mid-40s, according to polling averages,” said Kondik. “There would have to be an incredible amount of revulsion with the Republicans to deliver the House to the Democrats.”