University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center demographer Hamilton Lombard says the more important Census-related number to look at is the population under 18, which Cropper actually over-estimated. The 2020 Census counted 38,000 residents under age 18, while Cropper expected 42,000. He says that while that illustrates how Richmond has changed since the Cropper study was produced, it neither “necessarily confirms or undermines his projection.”