While black voters are the core of the Democratic base, Alabama’s voting-age population is about 27 percent black and 69 percent white, according to 2014 Census data. “If black voters make up about 25 percent of the electorate and [Democrat Doug] Jones wins at least 90 percent of them, that would mean that Jones would probably have to win at least one-third of the white vote to have a chance of winning,” wrote Geoffrey Skelley, an analyst at UVA’s Center for Politics, in an analysis of the Alabama race.