The median probability of a hypothesis proving accurate after publication of an initial finding was 56%. In other words, after one publication affirms a hypothesis, “the probability of the hypothesis being true does not rocket up to near certainty”, says psychologist Brian Nosek of the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, who is one of the co-authors of the study. After a successful replication, however, the probability of a hypothesis being true approaches 100%, the study found.