Putin’s Message: Things Are Still Under [My] Control

Q. Who else was on the plane?

A. Six Wagner Group colleagues, including Prigozhin’s principal military deputy Dimitri Utkin, and three crew. Press reports say it was a plane belonging to Wagner Group that Prigozhin used as his personal plane. There were apparently two planes and all the big shots were on the manifest for this one. The second one ultimately landed somewhere.

Q. What happens with the Wagner group now?

A. No one really knows for sure. The way Prigozhin operated, he was not a hands-on manager, nor a military leader. He was a guy who basically provided a kind of insurance policy to people. He would provide them protection from state interference. The Russians have this word, “krysha,” which means roof. A roof protects you from the elements. And the elements are a capricious and dangerous state. He was a guy sitting back at the front office, making arrangements for their supply logistics, provided by the Russian state mostly. So depending on who, besides Utkin, was on the plane, it might be that the actual operational leaders of the group are gone.

The Wagner mercenaries in Africa are still there. Presumably the structures running them on a day-to-day basis are in place. But will they continue to get Russian support, including supplies? Who will be the line of communication between the people in Chad and Moscow? We don’t know, so it’s possible it all falls apart. There are reports the Wagner people fighting in Ukraine have basically decamped to Belarus. Presumably there are some officers who were there, trying to keep things together, but are they in a position quickly to organize and be resupplied and be an effective fighting force? I don’t know. I doubt they know, either. Maybe they’re just all off the board.

Q. What does this mean for the war in Ukraine?

A. It’s not clear to me. It seems the order two months ago to integrate into the formal Russian forces wrote off Wagner’s people as an independent actor. A lot of what they were doing was serving as punishment brigades, where they’d be bodies put into highly risky places, where it was being shelled or there were lots of mines or both. It looks to me like the Russian forces are pretty much in a stationary defensive position, where they’re holding off Ukrainian attackers, and not so much marching into territory that previously has been controlled by the Ukrainians. It’s not clear, under these conditions, what value the Wagner people have.

Q. If Putin is behind this, why take such a dramatic step?

A. The expressive value of this was important to communicate to people. Putin is going to be a traditional Russian leader and he will settle scores when you don’t expect it. He probably had to sign off on this operation, but I doubt that he micromanaged it.

Q. Who are the people to whom he is sending this message?

A. Everybody. Anyone who would think about pushing back, shirking, being trouble. I envision the great masses of Russians, the middle in Russia opinion, being totally not thrilled with what’s going on in Ukraine, but not driven to a point where it’s worth it to actively resist, given that there are not informal, safe political feedback mechanisms. And particularly no one wants to be the first in a mob when it turns out there’s no one behind them. You have a small, populist, nationalist contingent, maybe 10% to 15% of the population, but I don’t think they really represent the significant masses of the people. I think the real goal is just having the message out to the population that, this isn’t great, but we have things under control. And “under control” would mean someone who behaved in such a way as Prigozhin did - very publicly, militarily, violently defying the regime, shooting down helicopters from the Russian army - would be dealt with in a definitive way.

Q. What affect does this have on Russian public opinion of Putin?

A. I think that at least short term, it stabilizes it. The issue with Putin in terms of the public is, is he your best alternative? Not whether you like it, but, given the other alternatives, is he your best alternative? And the guy who disposes of his enemies cruelly and dramatically may be a feature, not a bug, given that you’re not in a society where you can count on the legal system.

Paul B. Stephan said Vladimir Putin is a traditional Russian leader who will settle scores when you don’t expect it. (Contributed photo)

The issue then becomes, is it a sign of desperation and weakness? I don’t know. Only the future can reveal that, but I am inclined to regard it as a symptom of a situation that no one wants to be in. And given that he’s very personally and publicly responsible for this situation, he’s on the hook. But it’s not like there is any alternative that’s been stood up as a substitute for him.

Q. Does Putin have a succession strategy?

A. I think his succession strategy is not to have one. Leonid Brezhnev, when he was the head of the General Secretary for 18 years, had a strategy of “I don’t have to be competent, I just have to be better than the alternative.” And the way he did that is to have no plausible alternatives around him. With Putin, there’s absolutely no one who sticks out as a plausible successor.