The poll showed Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz holding the support of 49 percent of likely Texas voters, well ahead of the 44 percent supporting Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke. A September version of the poll had shown the two essentially even. “There’s a structural advantage for Cruz that is amounting to five or six points,” said Larry Sabato, a UVA political scientist. “This is not a purple state, this is a blood-red state.”