Kyle Kondik, a House analyst for the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, says that if (and he stresses a big "if") Republicans eventually suffer because of the shutdown, it will not be Tea Partiers who are hurt. "While the Republican brand is poor, the president isn't particularly popular - his approval is only in the low to mid 40s, according to polling averages," said Kondik. "There would have to be an incredible amount of revulsion with the Republicans to deliver the House to the Democrats."