Are we alone? UFO files spark questions about bias and belief

“This is one of the more interesting cases because it comes from astronauts, who are careful and credible observers,” Johnson said. “But the transcript itself points to plausible, ordinary explanations: ice, paint or flakes of material from the spacecraft or launch vehicle. That does not mean we know what the particles were. It means the scientifically responsible conclusion is that the case remains unresolved, not that it points to aliens.”

While some incidents merited a deeper look, the files date back years, and there is no opportunity to further investigate these cases. 

“What the documents revealed are a lot of cases that are formally unresolved,” Johnson said. “And being unresolved, that means they could be many things, some of them seem like something worthy of further investigation. None of them, to my assessment, lead us to any credible conclusion of aliens.”

Astronomer and author Kelsey Johnson says the recently released UFO files do not provide evidence of an extraterrestrial origin. (Contributed photo)

While the papers reveal very little, there is still a general fascination with aliens. Johnson said that roughly 56% of the American public believes aliens exist. 

“The majority of Americans think that extraterrestrial life exists, and almost 50% of the American public think it is likely that extraterrestrial life has visited Earth,” she said. “That’s a huge fraction of the population that is predisposed to thinking about these files as genuine evidence of extraterrestrial life.”

Cultural saturation of the idea of alien visitation can lead to what psychologists call “availability bias,” Johnson said.

“Our brains are much more likely to jump to a conclusion or come to a determination based on what most readily comes to mind,” Johnson said. “And so, what most readily comes to mind are usually things that are either really vivid, really emotionally charged, or you have a lot of exposure to.”

Because of availability bias, people may be predisposed to overlook more prosaic explanations that don’t immediately come to mind.

“It’s one of those things where you don’t know what you don’t know,” Johnson said.

Being skeptical does not mean Johnson would not welcome evidence of alien life.

“I would be thrilled if we found compelling evidence of extraterrestrial life,” Johnson said. “That would be one of the most consequential discoveries in human history. But the more we want something to be true, the more we need to guard against confirmation bias. These files just do not provide compelling evidence of an extraterrestrial origin.”

But despite the popular fascination with alien life, the release of the UFO papers does not seem to have ignited the popular imagination.

“My sense from the popular press is that these files have landed with more of a shrug than a splash,” Johnson said. “But people tend to interpret ambiguous evidence through the lens of what they already believe. If you are already inclined to think UAPs are alien in origin, unresolved cases may feel like confirmation. If you are looking at them scientifically, unresolved simply means unresolved, not extraterrestrial.”

Johnson said among astronomers there was little reaction. 

“Among astronomers, my sense is that the release was largely below the radar,” Johnson said. “That is not because astronomers are uninterested; few people spend more time studying the night sky than we do. But these files did not provide the kind of clear and testable evidence that would change the scientific conversation.”