This week on Super Tuesday, 14 states and one U.S. territory went to the polls to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, as well as other local races. More than a third of all delegates for the Democratic National Convention were in play, as candidates vie for the magic number – 1,991 – needed to win the nomination.

Larry Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, kept a close eye on the results as they came in. He and his team run Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which tracks, predicts and analyzes election results. Sabato is also a regular on national news networks, many of which he spoke with Tuesday and Wednesday, offering commentary drawn from decades of scholarship and political analysis.

As of Wednesday afternoon, former Vice President Joe Biden had been declared the winner in 10 states, including Virginia, while U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders won three states and was leading in California, where votes were still being tabulated. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who spent more than $500 million on nationwide ads, won American Samoa, but underperformed in other states and dropped out on Wednesday. U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren picked up some delegates, but did not win any states outright.

We spoke with Sabato on Wednesday to get his reaction and predictions for the remainder of the primary race.

Q. What struck you most as the results came in Tuesday night?

A. The resurrection Joe Biden experienced is almost unprecedented in American politics. There are a few other examples in our history, but none this dramatic. It all happened within about 72 hours, starting Saturday in South Carolina and proceeding to the endorsements [by former candidates Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, among others] that took place before voting Tuesday. The surge even continues today [Wednesday] with Bloomberg not only dropping out, but also endorsing Biden and hinting that he will spend a great deal of money to make sure a Democrat wins the general election.

It’s rare to see that kind of comeback. Even last week, I was hearing from Democratic leaders talking about a Sanders upset in South Carolina, where some polls showed he was gaining. Instead, Biden won in a landslide, and capitalized almost immediately with those endorsements.

Q. What is driving that resurgence?

A. When Sanders won by such a large margin in Nevada, I think some Democrats began to worry about the general election, and particularly about losing down-ballot races in the House and Senate. Democrats know they want someone to beat Donald Trump, and if they don’t support Bernie, it seems like they were waiting and looking for a strong candidate to emerge. Many thought it was Biden, but hesitated when he lost the first three races.

They got what they needed in South Carolina, and it was almost like a signal – many Democrats quickly moved into Biden’s circle. 

Q. Did polling largely reflect the results, or were there discrepancies?

A. There were a lot of shocked analysts last night, because surveys, even those taken right up until Super Tuesday, did not show what happened yesterday. Even polls taken after South Carolina missed the impact of many of Biden’s endorsements on Sunday and Monday.

Biden carried states where he had not even campaigned, which is rare. Massachusetts is one example. Another one that surprised me was Minnesota. I had seen private polling indicating that Klobuchar was in a close race with Sanders, and it was by no means guaranteed that she would win her own state. Then, suddenly, Biden wins Minnesota by a wide margin. To me, that says Democrats, especially moderate Democrats, were desperate for a candidate to coalesce behind.

“The resurrection Joe Biden experienced is almost unprecedented in American politics. There are a few other examples in our history, but none this dramatic.”

- Larry Sabato, Director of UVA’s Center for Politics

Q. Biden and Sanders appear to be the race’s frontrunners. What does Super Tuesday tell us about their strengths or weaknesses?

A. Bernie Sanders attracts a younger crowd and, more than in 2016, he is attracting Latino voters, especially young Latinos, in large numbers. His campaign had hoped more African Americans would support him as well, but that has not borne out yet. Many African American voters seem loyal to Obama and to Obama’s vice president.

The test for Bernie will be following through on his promises of a large youth voter turnout. We have not seen that much so far – perhaps somewhat in Nevada, but not much in Iowa, New Hampshire or the states that voted Tuesday.

Biden, on the other hand, draws heavily from older voters. He is the favorite among those over 60, I think because they have known him for so long. They remember him running for Senate as a 29-year-old, defeating a Republican incumbent, and tragically losing his wife and daughter shortly after. He feels comfortable to them. And most voters realize that he will do more reversion to Obama policies than striking out on radical new paths. His supporters view him as non-threatening.

I think one concern for Biden is a lack of energy around his campaign, as well as some weaknesses in his campaign organization. He has struggled with fundraising and staffing, and will need to improve that now and, if he wins the nomination, in the general election.

Q. What can Tuesday’s results tell us about how a candidate would fare in a general election against President Trump, especially among swing voters?

A. Excitement and passion matter in the general election, and that is Trump’s trump card. His supporters are completely dedicated to him. So for Trump, the general election will be a move toward his base. His team has done a good job of identifying nonvoters from 2016 who would have voted for Trump, and they are already planning to boost that turnout in 2020. Democrats have not done that kind of planning yet, because they have been fighting with each other, so they will be playing catch-up.

Biden has a strong African American base, but he has to keep that base excited, and keep African Americans engaged in his campaign. He needs to get young people and Latino voters more involved as well, because the Democratic nominee will need a big Latino, African American and youth turnout.

Bernie, if he is the nominee, would in many ways be the Democratic mirror of Donald Trump – keeping his base as excited and angry as possible to get massive turnout. For him, the question is, can he solve this age-old question of getting young people registered to vote and to the polls?

Q. Michael Bloomberg spent a lot of money on advertising, but did not get the results he hoped for. Could that tell us anything about how the modern media landscape is influencing elections?

A. The ads were effective in raising his profile – he started out polling around 1% and he has been out of office and less visible since 2012. His television ads were good – they made him seem like the answer to every problem – and they were everywhere, almost impossible to avoid.

Then he made the mistake that cost him the election – going on the debate stage with the other candidates. That killed him, and Elizabeth Warren deserves most of the credit for that. She would not let him out from under his own words and the charges made against him. She was relentless and his was the worst debate performance from either party that I can remember. The second debate was better, compared to the first, but still not very good.

People saw a very different person than he showed himself to be in his TV ads, and they believed what they saw with their own eyes, rather than a manufactured image on TV. I think that is the lesson here; it suggests that ads must reflect the real person, because sooner or later, people will know that.

Q. As other states go to the polls, what will you be paying the most attention to?

A. We will have a long, winding road ahead. Next week is Michigan, which I will be keeping a close eye on. It is one of three states that turned for Trump in 2016 after having been Democratic for so long. Bernie beat Hillary [Clinton] there in a big upset in the 2016 primary. I’ll be looking to see how much better or worse Bernie does this time compared to 2016.

In terms of delegates, I am also interested in states like Mississippi. Biden is likely to win it by a large margin, if he repeats his performances in states with a large African American voting pool. In this delegate system, it means a lot more to win in a landslide than to lose in a close, competitive election. If you win a close election 51%-49%, you have to share more delegates with your competitors, but if you keep your opponents below that 15% threshold, you get all of a state’s delegates.

Florida will also be interesting. Sanders has not been doing well there, largely because of his statements about [Cuban leader Fidel] Castro. If Biden wins Florida easily, that represents a lot of delegates.

I will also be keeping an eye on voting groups like suburban white women, as well as blue collar white males. Those are the voters that flipped for Trump in 2016. It will be interesting to see if the Democratic nominee can slice away a few voters here and there from those groups.

“Parties have every incentive, in this media age and social media age, to get the division over with early.”

- Larry Sabato

Q. Is a brokered convention possible?

A. It is more possible than at any time since the year I was born, 1952, when Adlai Stevenson was picked on a third ballot. That is the last time that has happened in either party, and there is a reason for that. Parties have every incentive, in this media age and social media age, to get the division over with early.

I think Democrats will do everything they can to prevent a brokered convention this time, and Obama will likely play a significant role in that, helping to bring the party back together.

Q. Do you have anything else to add?

A. I did want to bring up the incident at Joe Biden’s victory speech in Los Angeles [where an anti-dairy protestor rushed the stage, stopped by Jill Biden just a few feet from her husband]. For anyone who lived through the 1960s, this sparked nightmares about Robert Kennedy who, after a moment of triumph winning the California primary, was assassinated in Los Angeles leaving his campaign rally.

I am not disputing someone’s right to protest, but I do think we should consider how easy it is to get to these candidates. It only takes a second for something terrible to happen. The primary candidates do not have Secret Service protection right now, though it is given to both parties’ nominees for the general election. Biden, as a former VP, received protection for six months after leaving office, but no longer has it.

Given what has happened in the past, I think it is a conversation worth having.