Business & Government

UVA expert says US strikes damaged Iran’s facilities, not its knowledge

During the past weekend, the United States bombed Iranian facilities believed to be used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. While it is too early to know if Operation Midnight Hammer destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Stephen Mull suspects the program survives.

“The Iranian nuclear program has certainly suffered a setback in terms of its enrichment capabilities,” he said. “But you can’t bomb an idea. You can’t bomb the expertise that Iranians have developed on mastering the nuclear fuel cycle.”

Stephen Mull is UVA's vice provost for global affairs, and served as the U.S. government’s senior director for implementation of the Iranian nuclear deal from 2015 to 2017. (Contributed photo)

Mull, now vice provost for global affairs at the University of Virginia, served as the U.S. government’s senior director for implementation of the Iranian nuclear deal from 2015 to 2017, working with Iranian officials and other international partners.

Mull said Iran had about 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% – just short of the 90% needed to create a nuclear weapon. He said the U.S. attack did not take the Iranians by surprise.

“Indications are that Iran was preparing for these places to be attacked,” Mull said. “There were reports of Iran moving material away from the three sites that (U.S. President Donald) Trump ultimately attacked.”

Mull thinks renewing diplomatic negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program could result in ensuring international inspectors’ access to its stockpile of enriched uranium, which would help prevent its diversion to a covert nuclear weapons program. “Continued military escalation without diplomatic engagement could ironically strengthen voices inside Iran who argue for moving swiftly to build a nuclear weapon as a means of deterring Iran’s adversaries,” he said.

Mull said the Iranians’ retaliatory missile attacks on a U.S. base in Qatar, which the U.S. said resulted in no casualties and little damage, were a measured response because the Iranians do not want to escalate the situation.

“The Iranians warned Qatar of the attack, which enabled Qatar to engage its air defenses and shoot down all but one of the missiles,” Mull said. “The Iranian government is in an awkward position. It feels obligated to demonstrate to its people it will defend against U.S. attacks, but needs to do so without provoking a U.S. counterattack.”

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He said it is likely the long-term Iranian response will be more covert.

“It’s similar to how they responded during the first Trump administration, when President Trump ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps military commander in Iraq, in January of 2020,” Mull said. “The Iranians threatened a serious response, but in the end, attacked a U.S. air base in Iraq after providing the Iraqi authorities with advance notice, which allowed U.S. troops to avoid serious casualties, preventing further escalation.”

After Soleimani was killed, however, U.S. law enforcement detected a variety of Iranian-sourced plots against government officials involved in the decision.

The Iranians have also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for oil tankers. Mull discounts this threat.

“I don’t think there’s much risk of it because it would damage themselves,” he said. “If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it will prevent Iran from shipping its own oil, as well as damage its relations with the other Persian Gulf states, which recently Iran has been working hard to improve. The Iranian parliament did call on the Iranian government to close the Strait of Hormuz, but I’d be very surprised if the government does that, because it would basically shut off their own access to exports.”

Nor does Mull foresee international involvement. He said the Chinese want a steady and secure supply of oil from Iran and other Persian Gulf states.

“They’re not rushing to defend Iran,” he said. “They just want the fighting to stop. (Russian leader Vladimir) Putin condemned, in the strongest terms, U.S. escalation of the conflict, but the Russians didn’t offer anything beyond that. Russia wants to play the role of a balancing power in the region. It works hard to maintain good relations with Israel, with all the Persian Gulf states, and with Iran, and so they don’t want to take one side over another.”

Iran’s neighbors, many of whom host U.S. military facilities, view Iran as a threat, despite a recent trend in warming relations.

“I think they are secretly happy that the Iranians have suffered this setback in their nuclear program,” Mull said. “But at the same time, they worry about getting caught in the middle of U.S.-Iran hostilities, which could damage their oil and gas exports, result in greater domestic political instability, and risk direct Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases on their territory.”

Mull said it is difficult to gauge the Iranian people’s reaction to the attacks.

“While all indications are the Iranian people are deeply unhappy with their current government, the Israeli and U.S. attacks have prompted a ‘rally around the flag’ effect,” he said. “As of now, there is no evidence of a well-organized movement to depose the current government, and I expect it will survive for the short term. But there’s no question the events of the past week have raised serious questions about the legitimacy of Iranian regime that threaten its longer-term prospects. How it responds to those challenges in the months ahead will have a significant impact on its longer-term viability.”