Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the UVA Center for Politics had categorized the race in the historically Republican 5th as a “toss-up” before updating it Monday to “leans Republican.” However, according to Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, that doesn’t mean a GOP victory is a given.
In the last hours before election day, voters are already breaking records, casting more than 35 million early ballots. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows 59 percent of voters want a major change in direction from President Trump, but even experts are skeptical of the polls in a midterm cycle unlike any other. "You can't rely on the way it once was in terms of turnout or registrants or much of anything else," says Larry Sabato of UVA’s Center for Politics.
"The midterm history is pretty stark in that the president's party usually loses ground in the midterms and it is usually a question of how much ground they lose," UVA analyst Kyle Kondik said. "That is particularly true when a president is unpopular, as this president is." Kondik notes that in the 29 congressional midterm elections held since 1900, the president's party has lost House seats in all but three — 1934, 1998 and 2002.
The University of Virginia's political team is out with their final projection of Tuesday’s national elections and they are giving the Democrats a comfortable victory in the House. Political gurus Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, expect the Democrats to net 34 seats, 11 more than the 23 needed to take control of the chamber and install Rep. Nancy Pelosi as the new House speaker.
On the eve of Election Day, the UVA Center for Politics is waiting to see if its final predictions come true. Prognosticators from all across the county have put out their final predictions on races that could reshape the balance of power. Larry Sabato of UVA’s Center or Politics says that the tight race will likely go in favor of the Democrats.
Research from the University of Virginia’s Jennifer Lawless and Loyola Marymount’s Richard Fox has found that it’s tougher to get women to run for office because women candidates are more likely to question their qualifications or see political office as a viable career path.
Trump focused his final campaign blitz on turning out the Republican vote in states with close Senate contests. His campaign stops did not include Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan – states Trump narrowly carried, but where the Democratic incumbents have had easier re-election campaigns than expected. Larry Sabato, director of UVA's Center for Politics, called them “snap-back” states. Trump’s small 2016 margin means there are many voters "who have a party ID not aligned with the president.” “Given the first opportunity, they reassert their old selves,” he said.
Poor weather has the potential to affect turnout, though estimates on the number of early voters are now up to 38 million people, up from 27 million in the 2014 midterm elections. Thirty states plus the District of Columbia exceeded the 2014 numbers. "It’s raining here and lots of places. So what? You won’t melt unless you’re the Wicked Witch of the West," Larry Sabato, director of UVA’s Center for Politics wrote on Twitter just after 9 a.m. "Go Vote!!"
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a website run by UVA Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato, predicted that Democrats would easily pick up the necessary 23 seats. But it also cautioned that anything was possible with the country so deeply divided and memories of Trump’s upset win in 2016 still fresh in mind.
The Virginia Film Festival, held in Charlottesville, had another successful year. The 31st annual event had more than 30,000 people attend in the four-day span.
The University of Virginia has developed scalpel-free surgery for Parkinson’s patients.
Historically, the president's party routinely loses House seats in midterm elections. Indeed UVA’s Center for Politics points out that the president's party has lost seats in all but three of the 29 midterms held since 1900.
“You have not a [pure] democracy, but a republic accountable to people – but not immediately responsive to the people,” explains Sidney Milkis of UVA’s Miller Center. “That’s why you have a third [of the Senate] turning over, so it doesn’t get too far removed from currents of public opinion.”
Despite its volatile history, UVA has established itself as an exemplar in restorative justice due to its large-scale efforts to uncover and reconcile its ties to slavery.
11. University of Virginia: Thomas Jefferson designed the Academical Village in what is considered one of the most important architectural projects in U.S. history. The neoclassical campus, along with Jefferson’s home, Monticello, are a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
The Brody Jewish Center of the University of Virginia held a memorial service Saturday evening in honor of the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting victims.
UVA students and members of the Charlottesville community got a closer look at the history of African-Americans, specifically women, and their influence on UVA and the city as a whole.
(Subscription required) What might giving students more direction look like today? Rather than enforcing rules to keep students on the right path – or even suggesting that such a path exists – a number of colleges across the country are seeking to guide students as they chart their own. One of the more ambitious efforts is unfolding at UVA.
A new report shows that a record number of students earned college degrees in Virginia in the last school year.
Professor Douglas Laycock of the UVA School of Law is one of the nation’s leading experts on religious liberty and has served as lead counsel in six cases before the U.S. Supreme Court.