“There are many ambitious Republican officeholders in the 7th, and they may see this as an opportunity to snag a House seat,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “Brat will have to work hard not just in Congress but in the district to consolidate his hold on it.”
"Republicans have a big-time incentive to keep President Obama's approval rating low," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "We saw how that worked for them in the midterm, and the lower it goes, the better it is for their presidential candidate in 2016." What is on the Republicans' to-do list? Passing their own budget, for starters. Tax reform? Yes, but unlikely to go anywhere. The XL Pipeline? Maybe.
"It's possible -- though not probable -- that the Georgia race could decide control of the Senate," Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics told CBS News. "Democrats would have to have a much better night than we're anticipating, but the way most of these elections are shaping up, there are no absolute certainties."
"People hoping for Kumbaya the next two years are dreaming," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "Republicans have a big-time incentive to keep President Obama's approval rating low. We saw how that worked for them in the midterm, and the lower it goes, the better it is for their presidential candidate in 2016."
Hagan's campaign, late on Monday, pointed to predictions of her victory from U.S. News and World Report and Larry Sabato's crystal ball website at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato agreed Haley will get mentioned as a vice presidential prospect. But, he added, "Being picked? I doubt it." He questions why a GOP presidential nominee would need Haley on the ticket since South Carolina is squarely in the party's electoral corner already. A Republican nominee could tap another minority governor, Brian Sandoval of Nevada or Susana Martinez of New Mexico, and increase their odds of winning a contested state.
The results Tuesday, Hurt said, would be a referendum on President Barack Obama’s policies. To a degree, that’s true, said Geoffrey Skelley, of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “The president’s approval rating is mired in the low 40s, and that’s having a big effect on the electoral landscape,” Skelley said. “For Democrats to overcome the historical pattern, they likely needed Barack Obama to have a very high approval rating.”
Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics had predicted that Hogan, Brownback, LePage and Baker would all lose.
Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics and professor at the University of Virginia, sheds light on what he sees as midterm myths. One prediction he did offer for the upcoming elections: “The more you look at it, the more you realize that this election will be dramatically over-interpreted, as most midterms are.”
Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics and professor at the University of Virginia, sheds light on what he sees as midterm myths. One prediction he did offer for the upcoming elections: “The more you look at it, the more you realize that this election will be dramatically over-interpreted, as most midterms are.”
“It seems reasonable to question whether Republicans really had a wave Tuesday night, because they were unable to win a Senate seat in a state that seems to always swing with the national political tides, New Hampshire,” said Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “In the end, hard-charging Scott Brown never was able to turn around his weak favorability numbers here, and the state elected to stick with the more well-liked incumbent even in a Republican year.
“After Election Day, getting anything done in America’s increasingly polarized Congress will be very difficult,” said Craig Volden, a politics professor at the University of Virginia. “But not all hope is lost,” Volden said. “Lawmakers who want to legislate can still be effective. The recipe for success has 3 parts: cultivating a legislative portfolio that builds on their personal interests and experience, building coalitions, and focusing on issues of special importance to their constituents.”
Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election website at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, “In the Senate, the whip tends to have a good chance of becoming party leader at some point down the road. He noted that both Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat from Nevada, and McConnell had both served as whips. “It’s no sure thing,” Skelly said, “but it has been a road to leadership’s top spot many times before.”
“McConnell’s win is another argument for partisanship over popularity,” said Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Kentucky does not love its senior senator but it dislikes Obama and national Democrats more. We always favored McConnell to win because he was a Republican senator running in a Republican state in a Republican year, and that was enough.”
How well any of those contenders performs in 2016 hinges in part on how well Republicans do in the midterms, and if they can tie it to the current occupant of the White House, says Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia. Kondik says Republicans actually have an incentive for more gridlock if it leads to President Barack Obama remaining unpopular. “If Obama’s approval ratings remain low, that will help the GOP presidential nominee,” Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told MarketWatch in an email.
Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a weekly political newsletter by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, agreed: “The geography in the Senate was pretty terrible for Democrats. There were seven seats in states that [Republican presidential nominee Mitt] Romney won in 2012. The President’s poor ratings didn’t help.”
On CNN, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia sounded very pessimistic about what's ahead. He predicted minor compromises and little legislation in the next two years.
"You know the Republicans obviously had a really good midterm, but they are not going to be in a position to dictate policy because of course President Obama has a say, too, and they do not have veto-proof majorities in either the Senate or the House," said Kyle Kondik, who is with the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
"Whether she wants to be or not, any Republican presidential nominee for president in 2016 will have her on the shortlist for vice president. The GOP can't afford to have a double-white male ticket in this increasingly diverse country, and Martinez would allow potentially for greater appeal to women and Hispanics," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.