U.S. Population Will Grow Bigger and Get Older

While the population will grow, it will grow at a slower rate. The nation’s growth rate has slowed over the past two decades, from about 10% growth between 2000 and 2010 to 7.4% between 2010 and 2020. The growth is predicted to slow to about 5.5% between 2020 and 2030.

“The demographic drivers of population change are births, deaths and migration. When we say the population is growing slower, it is still increasing. The growth is just not as fast-paced as it used to be,” said Shonel Sen, projections program manager for the Cooper Center’s Demographics Research Group. “Similarly, immigration is still increasing, but at a lower rate. So, a slower rate of immigration is one of the factors leading to the slower rate of overall population growth.”

The center provides applied research, training programs, survey administration, demographic analysis, and other services for communities, governments and policymakers. Its recent projections are independently developed using past U.S. Census Bureau data as input. Unlike the Census Bureau’s projections series, Weldon Cooper projects the data on a state-by-state basis. Like all projections, the figures carry inherent uncertainty and could change over time.

While the number of Americans will increase, not all of the country will experience growth. Americans continue moving from the Northeast and Midwest into the South and West. Those regions are expected to grow between 6% and 8%, while the Northeast is expected to see a population decrease of about 1% and the Midwest by about 2%.

The population movement to the South and West has been ongoing since 2000.

“This southwestern shift is also evident in the evolution of the state rankings by total population size, with California, Texas and Florida dominating the charts from 2020 through 2050 and occupying the top three spots consistently,” said Sen.

Shonel Sen, projections program manager for the Cooper Center’s Demographics Research Group, says her figures show more than 20% of the population will be older than 65 with 25% being that age in Maine, Florida, New Hampshire and Vermont. (Photo by Matt Riley, University Communications)

For the next 16 years, the top 10 largest states in terms of population are expected to stay the same. By 2050, Washington state is expected to surpass Michigan as the 10th-largest state in terms of population.

California, Texas, Florida and New York will continue to be the home of more than a third of the U.S. population. While most states will continue to grow, West Virginia, Mississippi and Illinois are expected to see decreases in population. Utah, Idaho and Texas will continue as the states with the fastest-growing populations.

The projections also show that as the U.S. population grows larger, it’s also growing older. By 2030, more than 20% of the population will be over 65 years old. In Maine, Florida, New Hampshire and Vermont, nearly 25% of the population will be older than 65 by 2030.

The nation’s median age is also rising. In the 2020 Census, the age was about 38 years old. According to projections, by 2030, more than half of the country's population will be over 40 years old. Maine is projected to have the highest median age through 2050, while Utah will have the lowest.

“There may be future fluctuations among the main drivers of population change. For instance, both international and domestic migration patterns have been evolving (lower immigration, higher remote work/telecommuting) since 2020, especially in the post-pandemic period,” Sen said. “This will further affect population distribution among the different states. The next round of projections will be able to better capture the long-term impact of some of these changes.”