Research & Discovery

Signs point toward a bad flu season ahead. Here is what you need to know.

This year’s influenza variant is spreading in the United States earlier than usual, while the United Kingdom is bracing for a “once-in-a-decade” flu season. The two indicators may predict a nasty flu season in America.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, flu season typically occurs in the fall and winter. While influenza viruses spread year-round, most flu activity peaks between December and February.

New this year, the University of Virginia has created a public-facing flu tracker for the community. It is updated on Mondays.

UVA Today spoke with two doctors at UVA Student Health and Wellness, which, for the third consecutive year, topped Princeton Review’s “Best Colleges” ranking of top student health services. Dr. Meredith Hayden is the department’s chief medical officer, and Dr. Michael Patrizio is the associate director for acute care.

This year’s strain

“The new strain that’s being talked about in the media right now is something that they’re calling ‘subclade K,’ which is a strain of the H3N2 influenza A virus,” Patrizio said. “This strain emerged at the tail end of the Southern Hemisphere flu season and has really started to cause early outbreaks of the flu in places like the United Kingdom and Japan.

Portraits of Dr. Meredith Hayden, left, and Dr. Michael Patrizio, right

Dr. Meredith Hayden, left, is the chief medical officer of Student Health and Wellness and Dr. Michael Patrizio is the associate director for acute care. (Photos by Jack Looney)

“What the United Kingdom is reporting is really a much earlier, more robust wave of influenza than they are used to seeing at this time of year.”

How to protect yourself

“Right now, what we know is that the influenza vaccine is still very important. Although the data is, albeit, limited, it still looks like the vaccine is protecting against severe disease,” Hayden said.

“We still would advise all eligible people to get the flu vaccine. It’s readily available. It takes about two weeks to take effect, so it’s good to get it now and not wait for the peak of the flu season,” she added.

People can also order a nasal flu vaccine called FluMist.

“That can be an option for people who don’t like getting shots,” Hayden advised. “The other thing that’s new is over-the-counter flu tests. Especially for students, I think it gives them more information so that they’re not getting each other sick, not going to class when they’ve got flu or COVID, versus a cold.”

What to do if you get the flu

“Otherwise-healthy people, particularly college students, can probably manage the symptoms at home, making use of over-the-counter medications – things like acetaminophen or ibuprofen for the fevers and body aches,” Hayden said. “They can use over-the-counter cold medicines for some of the nasal symptoms and cough.”

For people at risk for a more severe case of the flu, like those with a weakened immune system, who are pregnant of have chronic lung disease, she recommends seeing a doctor and getting on a prescription antiviral medication.

“Antiviral medications are most effective if you start them as early as possible in the course of your infection, ideally in the first 48 hours,” Hayden said.

How effective is this year’s vaccine?

“That’s tough to answer because this subclade K is emerging, and we don’t know if that is going to take hold in the United States and how much of the illness that might be responsible for,” Patrizio said.

“Generally speaking, in an average year, the flu vaccine is between 30% and 60% effective. Right now, some very early data out of the United Kingdom suggests that this year’s vaccine has effectiveness of about 30% to 40% against the subclade K, but that’s really early data. And I think there are some questions about what that might look like as this evolves.”

What are the symptoms of flu, and how contagious is it?

“Symptoms of influenza are typically going to be fevers, chills, body aches and those often associated with the typical cold symptoms as well – so cough, congestion, runny nose, sore throat, headache,” Hayden said. “Flu typically comes on very quickly. People describe it as ‘getting hit by a bus.’”

People can catch the flu from someone else who has it and may be coughing and sneezing.

“Flu can live on hard surfaces for 24 to 48 hours,” Hayden said. “So, that would be things like doorknobs, and then softer surfaces like clothing or paper, and linens, for 12 hours.”